Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-war U.S.

A New Keynesian model allowing for an active monetary and passive fiscal policy (AMPF) regime and a passive monetary and active fiscal policy (PMAF) regime is estimated to fit various U.S. samples from 1955 to 2007. The results show that data in the pre-Volcker periods strongly prefer an AMPF regime, even with a prior centered in the PMAF region. The estimation, however, is not very informative about whether the Federal Reserve's reaction to inflation is greater than one in the pre-Volcker period, because much lower values can still preserve determinacy under passive fiscal policy. In addition, whether a PMAF regime can generate consumption growth following a government spending increase depends on the degree of price stickiness. An income tax cut can yield an unusual negative labor response if monetary policy aggressively stabilizes output growth.     

全要素生产率、人民币汇率与中国贸易收支——基于跨期最优选择理论的实证研究

文章首先以跨期最优分析框架为基础建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型,然后基于中国1999-2009年省际面板数据,运用面板FMOLS估计方法,从全国和地区两个层面对中国全要素生产率、人民币实际汇率与中国贸易收支的关系展开实证分析。研究表明,中国贸易部门内资企业和外资企业的全要素生产率提升均对中国实际贸易余额增长产生了正面影响,其中东部地区的促进作用最为强劲;中国非贸易部门全要素生产率与其实际贸易余额负相关,其中东部和中部地区非贸易部门全要素生产率提升会显著减少该地区的实际贸易差额;人民币实际有效汇率提升对中国实际贸易收支具有显著的负面影响,并按照东部、中部和西部地区依次加重。根据上述分析结果,文章提出了调节中国贸易收支的相关政策建议。     

城乡收入差距影响因素的非参数逐点回归解析

文章利用1987-2008年我国的相关统计数据构建了非参数面板数据模型,采用非参数逐点回归估计方法,估计了我国的教育投入、教育产出、城市化水平、经济开放度、产业结构和政府经济行为等变量对城乡收入差距的影响,刻画了各影响因素关于自变量系数的动态演进趋势。研究表明:各影响因素关于自变量系数的逐点估计结果共有四种类型:"倒U型"、"U型"、"上升型"和"下降型";各影响因素对缩小城乡收入差距都有积极的作用,但在不同时期所起的作用不同。     

基于到达角误差约束的稳健宽带波束合成算法

针对阵列天线存在系统误差的情况,在Frost结构的基础上提出了一种改进的稳健宽 带波束合成算法。该算法以信号到达角（DOA）误差为约束条件合成期望信号,并把滤波器 优化设计转化为凸优化问题,使用内点迭代法有效解决,进一步使得期望的信号响应具有一 定的波动性,从而使得更多的自由度应用在干扰和噪声的抑制上,达到优化加权制的目的。 仿真结果表明,当系统存在一定的DOA误差、幅相误差和位置误差时,所提出的宽带波束合 成算 法获得的信干噪比（SINR）比worst-case约束算法提高约1～3 dB。     

基于梳状导频分布的OFDM信道估计改进算法

提出了基于梳状导频分布的OFDM信道估计的改进算法,分别在基于频域（DFT）和时 域（IDFT）的迫零内插算法的基础上运用了数据翻转的思想。该算法可以大大地减少DFT/ID FT变换时所产生的边缘效应,并且通过优化边缘位置的估计性能来提升整个OFDM信道估计的 精确度。仿真结果表明,该算法相比经典算法在性能上有较大提升。     

电网工程建设预算编制与计算标准的跟踪分析系统开发应用

《电网工程建设预算编制与计算标准》（简称《预规》）是电网工程技经工作的基础标准,是在一定技术水平、经济水平下测定的,具有时间局限性,需要根据变化适时修订。由于修订工作量大,修订周期过长,在工程实际中暴露出标准滞后的问题。针对上述问题,基于大量实际工程决（结）算数据,研发了该标准的跟踪分析软件系统,选取了《预规》＂其他费用＂中的3类典型项目费用作为例证,判断＂其他费用＂中对应项目标准的适用性,旨在为适时提出修订《预规》的标准提供参考建议。     

How Productive Is Workplace Health and Safety?

In this paper, we investigate the causal impact of workplace health and safety practices on firm performance, using Danish longitudinal matched employer–employee data merged with unique cross‐sectional representative firm survey data on work environment conditions. We estimate standard production functions, augmented with workplace environment indicators, addressing both time‐invariant and time‐varying potentially relevant unobservables in the production process. We find positive and large productivity effects of improved physical dimensions of the health and safety environment, specifically, “internal climate” and “monotonous repetitive work”.     

Fiscal financing and the efficacy of fiscal policy in Korea: An empirical assessment with comparison to the U.S. evidence

This paper aims to assess the empirical implications of fiscal financing in Korea and study how they differ from those of the U.S. We estimate two versions of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model—a small open economy (SOE) model for Korea and its closed economy counterpart for the U.S.—in which the former nests the latter as a special case. The fiscal policy specification posits that government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor income, capital income and consumption expenditures respond to the level of government debt and the state of economic activity. Analysis of the data from 2000 to 2015 shows that distortionary capital taxes play a critical role in stabilizing government debt in the U.S., whereas non-distorting fiscal instruments are the primary means of fiscal adjustment in Korea. Regarding the magnitude of debt-financed fiscal stimuli, the substantial trade openness of Korea is significant in that it produces relatively smaller government spending and transfer multipliers compared to the U.S.     

一类具有无界时滞的微分不等式

本文建立了一类具有无界时滞微分不等式,将有界时滞微分不等式推广到无界时滞微分不等式,并得到其解的指数估计和渐近估计.     

Gibbs posterior inference on value-at-risk

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) and assessment of associated uncertainty is crucial for both insurers and regulators, particularly in Europe. Existing approaches link data and VaR indirectly by first linking data to the parameter of a probability model, and then expressing VaR as a function of that parameter. This indirect approach exposes the insurer to model misspecification bias or estimation inefficiency, depending on whether the parameter is finite- or infinite-dimensional. In this paper, we link data and VaR directly via what we call a discrepancy function, and this leads naturally to a Gibbs posterior distribution for VaR that does not suffer from the aforementioned biases and inefficiencies. Asymptotic consistency and root-n concentration rate of the Gibbs posterior are established, and simulations highlight its superior finite-sample performance compared to other approaches.